Since the beginning of the
Industrialisation, humans have been putting the earth system under an
ever-growing amount of pressure in terms of resources depletion and
environmental degradation. Such pressure resulting from anthropogenic
activities is believed to have caused an unexpected shift into a new geological
era: the Anthropocene.
These recent changes in global
environmental systems are worrying and lead us to question:
How long we can continue with business-as-usual before our wellbeing is compromised by our choices?
The answer is suggested by William Steffen
who recently explored the limits to which we can push the planet before it
changes irreversibly.
He identified that a planetary boundary for phosphorus discharge into our oceans is 10 times its pre-industrial levels. Globally, 14.2 Tg/year of phosphorus are washed off from cropland into freshwater ecosystems and eventually our oceans - a rate that effectively surpasses the 11 Tg/year suggested by scientists as the safe limit.
He identified that a planetary boundary for phosphorus discharge into our oceans is 10 times its pre-industrial levels. Globally, 14.2 Tg/year of phosphorus are washed off from cropland into freshwater ecosystems and eventually our oceans - a rate that effectively surpasses the 11 Tg/year suggested by scientists as the safe limit.
Our agriculture currently highly depends on
phosphorus to maximize and support crop yields so demanding a reduction in fertilizers
usage could lead to a threat to food security. Despite the positive
implications of reducing the wash-off of pollutants, it is difficult to imagine that markets and governments will put at risk human well-being to safe guard the
environment.
In fact, the world population is bound to
increase by 75% reaching 10 billion by the end of the century. Not only we will
have to produce more food but an increasing amount of the world population is
demanding for more meat. Experts believe this demand will lead to a doubling in
the production of grains as well as soybeans- due to their high protein
content- for livestock feed.
The issue
Phosphorus is a non-renewable
resource and studies found that if its consumption was to continue at the
current rate it will run out before the end of the century. The peak in demand
is thought to be in 2030 – what is known as the Phosphorus Peak. On top of the
issue of quantity of phosphorus available, the rising demand is being matched
by ever decreasing quality of the substance as well as increasing prices.
While reading about the negative effect of
phosphorus and the dangers associated with our dependency on it for food
production, I began to question:
As the peak approaches with associated rise in prices, more and more studies have shifted their attention towards finding a more economically sustainable way to feed the world population without sacrificing the environment.
Is this peak a blessing in disguise or a terrifying prospect?
As the peak approaches with associated rise in prices, more and more studies have shifted their attention towards finding a more economically sustainable way to feed the world population without sacrificing the environment.
Interestingly, the answer may lie in the
investigation of the distribution of phosphorus across different landscapes and
its heterogeneity across different scales. Although the exact date of the
Phosphorus Peak is still widely debated, concerns remain as there is still no
likely substitute to this chemical:
if we are to continue producing food for the growing world population we have to start managing the allocation of existing phosphorus in a more effective manner.
For instance, in some regions freshwater
ecosystems are suffering from an excess in phosphorus inputs leading to a rise
in nutrients and increasing eutrophication. On the other hand, at a global
scale we are experiencing a shortage of this resource because areas that
currently export phosphorus, such as West Saharan countries, are now under
excessive pressure.
Looking at the map produced by MacDonald
and Bennet it becomes evident that there is an imbalance in the way fertilizers
are being used. For instance, Ukraine is known as the bread basket of the
Russian empire despite suffering from very serious phosphorus deficit. On the
other hand, Brazil is flashed as an hotspot where fertilizers are being
over-used.
I strongly believe that taking spatial variability in the distribution of phosphorus would
allow for a global approach to agriculture that could prevent a further rise in
freshwater pollution.
The Phosphorus Peak is a terrifying prospects but it is essentially forcing markets and global entities to develop a more sustainable approach to agriculture which would not have been considered otherwise.
Do you agree this could be nature's blessing in disguise?
The Phosphorus Peak is a terrifying prospects but it is essentially forcing markets and global entities to develop a more sustainable approach to agriculture which would not have been considered otherwise.
Do you agree this could be nature's blessing in disguise?
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